MIAMI, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 27: President Pat Riley of the Miami Heat addresses the media during the introductory press conference for Jimmy Butler at American Airlines Arena on September 27, 2019 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Miami Heat: 5 realistic free-agent targets this offseason
Miami Heat (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
It was an enormous thud back to reality for the Miami Heat in season 2020-21.
Coming off the back of a memorable trip to the NBA Finals through an unprecedented run in the NBA bubble, the Heat were never able to recapture the form that shocked the league last postseason. Through a combination of Covid protocols, untimely injuries, and a degree of regression in some players, the Heat produced a largely underwhelming regular season, aside from a couple of brief runs of sustained form.
Following a disastrous finish to their season, here are five realistic free agents the Miami Heat should consider targeting this offseason.
Now having been swept in the first round by the Milwaukee Bucks, the team they defeated 4-1 in last year’s playoffs, the Heat are now facing a very challenging and pivotal offseason. As presently constructed, the Heat have just five players under contract for the 2021-22 season: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa and KZ Okpala.
They have a trio of restricted free agents in Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn and Max Strus, whilst also having a team option on the final year of the contracts of veterans Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala. Furthermore, midseason arrivals in the form of Victor Oladipo, Trevor Ariza and Nemanja Bjelica enter the summer as unrestricted free agents, with Oladipo the only one of the trio with whom the Heat hold their Bird rights.
As a result, the Heat front office led by team president Pat Riley will simply have their work cut out for them as they look to regenerate a roster just eight months removed from the NBA Finals.
With this in mind, here are five free agents Riley and his team should consider pursuing.
Heat were never able to recapture the form that shocked the league last postseason. Through a combination of Covid protocols, untimely injuries, and a degree of regression in some players, the Heat produced a largely underwhelming regular season, aside from a couple of brief runs of sustained form.</p>
<h2>Following a disastrous finish to their season, here are five realistic free agents the Miami Heat should consider targeting this offseason.</h2>
<p>Now having been swept in the first round by the Milwaukee Bucks, the team they defeated 4-1 in last year’s playoffs, the Heat are now facing a very challenging and pivotal offseason. As presently constructed, the Heat have just five players under contract for the 2021-22 season: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa and KZ Okpala.</p>
<p>They have a trio of restricted free agents in Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn and Max Strus, whilst also having a team option on the final year of the contracts of veterans Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala. Furthermore, midseason arrivals in the form of Victor Oladipo, Trevor Ariza and Nemanja Bjelica enter the summer as unrestricted free agents, with Oladipo the only one of the trio with whom the Heat hold their Bird rights.</p>
<p>As a result, the Heat front office led by team president Pat Riley will simply have their work cut out for them as they look to regenerate a roster just eight months removed from the NBA Finals.</p>
<p>With this in mind, here are five free agents Riley and his team should consider pursuing.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> No. 5 </a>
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<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Miami Heat (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)</p>
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<h2>Miami Heat free-agent target 5. Doug McDermott, Indiana Pacers</h2>
<p><strong>Age: 29</strong></p>
<p><strong>2020-21 salary: $7.3 million</strong></p>
<p>It was a career-best season for sharpshooter <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mcderdo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" ref="nofollow">Doug McDermott</a>, who just completed his third season with the Indiana Pacers, his fifth team over a seven-season span. Originally the No. 11 overall pick of the Chicago Bulls, McDermott also started a career-high 29 games, a significant change having come off the bench for all-bar 24 games through his opening six seasons in the league.</p>
<p>At 6’7″ and with a lightning quick trigger, McDermott averaged 13.6 points in just 24.5 minutes per game in 2020-21. Most notably, his 53.2 percent clip from the field was comfortably a career-high, while his 38.8 percent clip from long range was just below his career 40.7 percent return. One notable growth in McDermott’s offensive game has been the manner in which he’s diversified his scoring options. The following is McDermott’s returns when taking 3-6 dribbles during his past three seasons with the Pacers, per <em>NBA Stats</em>.</p>
<p><strong>McDermott with 3-6 dribbles:</strong></p>
<p><strong>2018-19:</strong> 5-11 FG</p>
<p><strong>2019-20:</strong> 2-12 FG</p>
<p><strong>2020-21:</strong> 16-34 FG</p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Doug McDermott, in a contract year, is making himself a lot of money. He’s now much more than just a shooter. A great finisher in traffic.</p>
<p>He has a game-high 19pts tonight off the bench. Seven of his 8 FGs are inside the arc. <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://t.co/KHEGTfv29B">pic.twitter.com/KHEGTfv29B
<p>— Scott Agness (@ScottAgness) <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://twitter.com/ScottAgness/status/1380687932118466563?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%22>April 10, 2021</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p></div>
<p>Naturally, having the ability to put the ball on the floor and operate is only going to help his greatest strength, being his prowess from the perimeter. Last season, among the 16 players who had at least 100 hand-off possessions, McDermott ranked behind only Stephen Curry and Joe Harris with 1.10 points per possession. In terms of the way the Heat run their offense, McDermott appears to be a terrific fit.</p>
<p>Of course, acquiring a player such as McDermott, an unrestricted free agent, would be directly dependant on the status of Robinson. If Robinson is re-signed, McDermott would clearly not be an option due to his likely salary requirements. However if for some reason Robinson receives an offer the Heat don’t deem worthy to match, signing a veteran sniper such as McDermott, a former teammate of Jimmy Butler, to a short-term deal would make an enormous amount of sense.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> No. 4 </a>
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<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">Miami Heat (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)</p>
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<h2>Miami Heat free-agent target 4. Malik Monk, Charlotte Hornets</h2>
<p><strong>Age: </strong>23</p>
<p><strong>2020-21 salary: </strong>$5.3 million</p>
<p>The Heat were given a first-hand look at the <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/monkma01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" ref="nofollow">Malik Monk</a> experience this past season. A highly explosive shooting guard, Monk averaged 26.3 points on 61.4 percent shooting over his three games against the Heat, which featured a career-high 36 points including nine 3-pointers, and another performance of 32 points on 12-of-17 shooting.</p>
<p>Overall, the former No. 11 overall pick averaged 11.7 points in 20.9 minutes per game last season, his fourth in the league. Given he’s started just once out of 233 career games, it’s understandable that Monk has averaged just 17.8 minutes per game for his career. But this past season demonstrated his ability to produce when given increased opportunity.</p>
<p>Over 15 games in which he played at least 25 minutes, Monk averaged 19.3 points per game, which featured shooting 46.4 percent from three on 7.5 attempts per game. While not a frequent visitor to the free throw line, Monk nonetheless possesses plenty of prowess off the dribble, both from the mid and long range. Furthermore, he is highly adept at playing off the ball, with <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628370/shooting/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season%22 target="_blank" rel="noopener">61.3 percent of his field goals</a> last season coming via an assist, per <em>NBA Stats</em>.</p>
<p>A former teammate of Bam Adebayo at Kentucky, ascertaining Monk’s value on the open market this summer presents one of the more intriguing challenges for teams around the league. A restricted free agent, a recent comparison in terms of a contract offer could be Malik Beasley of the Minnesota Timberwolves. The No. 19 overall pick in 2016, Beasley signed a four-year, $60 million deal last summer, which includes a team option for the final year of the deal.</p>
<p>So while he’s unlikely to be at the absolute top of many teams wish lists this summer, the tantilizing talent he possesses means Malik Monk presents as one of the more intriguing options of the offseason.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> No. 3 </a>
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<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">Miami Heat (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)</p>
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<h2>Miami Heat free-agent target 3. Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks</h2>
<p><strong>Age: </strong>29</p>
<p><strong>2020-21 salary: </strong>$19 million</p>
<p>Like McDermott, <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=hardati01,hardati02&search=Tim+Hardaway&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" ref="nofollow">Tim Hardaway</a> Jr. had a mix of both starting and reserve roles this season, his eighth in the league. And like McDermott, the 6’5″ Hardaway enjoyed the best year of his career, averaging 16.6 points in 28.4 minutes per game.</p>
<p>With the ability to both work on and off the ball, Hardaway is the type of explosive scorer the Heat were sorely lacking in their recent playoff run, where they produced an incredibly anaemic 95.4 offensive rating in their four games.</p>
<p>This past regular season, there were 16 players throughout the league who had at least 100 off screen possessions, with Hardaway ranking first in both points per possession (1.36) and field goal percentage (52.0). With a combination of a quick release, athleticism and an excellent shooting stroke, Hardaway is an absolute nightmare for opposing defenses when he’s rolling.</p>
<p>The Heat found this out first hand at home this season, with Hardaway exploding for a career high 10 triples on his way to 36 points. Overall for the 2020-21 season, 30.5 percent of Hardaway’s made baskets came unassisted, but he also ranked ninth overall in made catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, nailing these at an impressive 40.9 percent clip.</p>
<p>In terms of an overall fit, Hardaway’s arrival, like McDermott, very much depends on the Heat’s moves in both free agency and the trade market with their current roster. With Dragic, Robinson, Oladipo and Nunn all out of contract in the guard rotation, how this quartet of players are handled would be a very large determinant in whether the Heat make a serious pursuit of this unrestricted free agent.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> No. 2 </a>
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<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Miami Heat Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images</p>
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<h2>Miami Heat free-agent target 2. Lonzo Ball, New Orleans Pelicans</h2>
<p><strong>Age: </strong>23</p>
<p><strong>2020-21 salary: </strong>$11 million</p>
<p>One of the more intriguing prospects in the upcoming free agency class, <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/balllo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" ref="nofollow">Lonzo Ball</a> is certain to attract plenty of appeal. At 6’6″ and possessing a 6’9″ wingspan, Ball is a unique type of point guard with his ability to influence the game at both ends of the floor. While he’s a terrific passer, Ball does not dominate the ball in a traditional sense, a terrific fit alongside the playmaking abilities of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.</p>
<p>An improving perimeter shooter, Ball averaged a career high 14.6 points with the New Orleans Pelicans this past season, which included hitting on 37.8 percent of his 3-pointers on 8.3 attempts per game, with both of these also the best return of his career. Notably, this was despite Ball’s touches per game dropping from 82.7 to 76.7, with the Pelicans increasingly handing the offense and ball-handling duties over to second-year All-Star Zion Williamson.</p>
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<p>As a result of a more off-the-ball role, Ball’s assist numbers numbers dropped from 7.0 to 5.7 per game, however his catch-and-shoot returns prospered, hitting at a 40.2 percent clip from long range on almost six attempts per outing.</p>
<p>While Ball’s outside shooting has certainly grown, he’s still susceptible to periods of maddening inconsistency. Over the first 10 games of this past season, the restricted free agent shot a 28.2 percent from long distance, only to respond over the ensuing 22 games and shoot the long ball at an elite 44.3 percent clip. But the one thing that is certain is that Ball has the propensity to post some absolutely jaw-dropping stat lines.</p>
<p>In 2020-21, the players with the most games of at least 27 points, eight assists and seven 3-pointers were as follows, per <em>Stathead</em>:</p>
<p>5 – Stephen Curry</p>
<p>4 – Damian Lillard</p>
<p>3 – Lonzo Ball</p>
<p>The No. 2 overall pick in 2017 by the Los Angeles Lakers, Ball has yet to appear in a playoff game, and at just 23, his potential is still largely untapped. Playing alongside a core of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, Ball’s ability to both handle the rock and also spot for open looks, whilst proving a long body at the defensive end, could prove an intriguing fit in South Florida.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> No. 1 </a>
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<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">Miami Heat (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)</p>
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<h2>Miami Heat free-agent target 1. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors</h2>
<p><strong>Age: </strong>35</p>
<p><strong>2020-21 salary: </strong>$30 million</p>
<p>Heavily reported as being a serious trade acquisition prior to this season’s trade deadline, <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-%22 target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" ref="nofollow">Kyle Lowry</a> ticks a lot of boxes as it pertains to the Heat’s requirements this offseason. While only standing 6’0″, Lowry has been incredibly consistent for a sustained period of time, having just completed his 15th season in the league.</p>
<p>A six-time All-Star, Lowry played in just 46 games last season as the Toronto Raptors missed the postseason for the first time since 2014. Despite having a tough time getting on the floor, Lowry still produced when available, averaging 17.2 points, 7.3 assists and 5.4 rebounds. As a result, Lowry has now averaged 18.3 points, 7.2 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 2.7 3-pointers made and 1.5 steals over his last eight seasons. Per <em>Stathead</em>, James Harden is the only other player in NBA history to have posted these numbers over an eight-season span.</p>
<p>This past season, a combination of Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn assumed the lead point guard duties for the Heat, with both Dragic and Nunn now out of contract and uncertain to return. But unlike this trio, Lowry does not falter at the defensive end of the floor.</p>
<p>Among many factors contributing to the Heat’s struggles, the lack of defensive prowess in the backcourt was glaring, thus presenting an overall low supply of genuine two-way players. But adding the unrestricted free agent would take a great deal of strain away from coach Spoelstra when either Butler or Adebayo are not on the floor. Overall, his ability to play-make, shoot from the outside and defend on the perimeter makes Lowry one of the most desirable of the getable free agents on the market.</p>
<p>Ultimately, it’s likely to come down to the financial component of the transaction. Recently, Lowry <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/06/09/miami-heat-realistic-free-agent-targets/"https://www.si.com/nba/raptors/news/toronto-raptors-kyle-lowry-discusses-upcoming-free-agency" target="_blank" rel="noopener">commented on his approach</a> to free agency:</p>
<blockquote><p>“My family will be a major factor in this. Also, money talks, and years talk, and all that stuff. Let’s be real. I play this game for the love of the game but at the end of the day, I want to make sure my family is still taken care of for generations and the time to come.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Given his age, output and recent salary, a two-year deal in the $50 million range would be a reasonable prediction for Lowry this summer. A close personal friend of Butler, the Heat have the necessary cap space to add a player such as Lowry and his accompanying salary.</p>
<p>And when you take into account his desire to secure another championship and his continued level of high production, a Kyle Lowry and Miami Heat partnership seems the most appealing of the feasible options this offseason.</p>
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