Kyle Lowry #7 and Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat look on against the Milwaukee Bucks (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
On November 3, 2021, the Miami Heat were 6-1 and clearly the best team in the league. Just ten days later, the Heat have lost three in a row and four of their last five. What in the world is going on?
Taking a look at the stats, we can see that the offense is scoring eight points fewer per 100 possessions (from 115.4 points to 107.0), and the defense is allowing a whopping 17 points more per 100 possessions (from 98.6 to 115.2). They went from the best offense AND the best defense to the 20th ranked offense and 27th ranked defense. That’s… not great.
So what’s going on? Is this just small-sample variance, the kind of run that happens multiple times to every team in the league throughout a season? Or are there some underlying root causes that could prove to be problematic down the road? Let’s find out.
Diagnosing the recent struggles of the Miami Heat: Stopped hitting threes
Interestingly, the Miami Heat do not have the en-vogue threes-and-layups shot profile you might expect for a team that was an early adopter of analytics. The Heat are getting the same shots they’ve gotten all season – lots of corner threes and mid-range shots, few above-the-break threes, and a healthy diet of foul shots.
They are shooting it about as accurately from everywhere inside the arc as before. The major difference is that the Heat’s three-point percentage has cratered, dropping from 37 percent before November 3, to 29% after, per Cleaning The Glass. The Heat shoot about 33 threes a game on average, so that decline in three-point percentage explains much of the offensive scoring decline.
Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry have gotten off to slow starts to the season, and they are shooting a combined 28% on 18 attempts per game. That is half the Heat’s team total, during this five-game stretch.
If they creep back up to where they should be, this problem shouldn’t linger for long. Outside of Herro, other players are also shooting at or below their career averages.
Other offensive indicators, such as turnover and free throw rates, have only gotten slightly worse. The Heat’s offensive woes as of late should resolve themselves as soon as their shooting percentages improve a bit.
Miami Heat</a> were 6-1 and clearly the best team in the league. Just ten days later, the Heat have lost three in a row and four of their last five. What in the world is going on?</p>
<p>Taking a look at the stats, we can see that the offense is scoring eight points fewer per 100 possessions (from 115.4 points to 107.0), and the defense is allowing a whopping 17 points more per 100 possessions (from 98.6 to 115.2). They went from the best offense AND the best defense to the 20th ranked offense and 27th ranked defense. That’s… not great.</p>
<p>So what’s going on? Is this just small-sample variance, the kind of run that happens multiple times to every team in the league throughout a season? Or are there some underlying root causes that could prove to be problematic down the road? Let’s find out.</p>
<h2>Diagnosing the recent struggles of the Miami Heat: Stopped hitting threes</h2>
<p>Interestingly, the Miami Heat do not have the en-vogue threes-and-layups shot profile you might expect for a team that was an early adopter of analytics. The Heat are getting the same shots they’ve gotten all season – lots of corner threes and mid-range shots, few above-the-break threes, and a healthy diet of foul shots.</p>
<p>They are shooting it about as accurately from everywhere inside the arc as before. The major difference is that the Heat’s three-point percentage has cratered, dropping from 37 percent before November 3, to 29% after, per <a href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"https://cleaningtheglass.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Cleaning The Glass</em>.</a> The Heat shoot about 33 threes a game on average, so that decline in three-point percentage explains much of the offensive scoring decline.</p>
<p>Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry have gotten off to slow starts to the season, and they are shooting a combined 28% on 18 attempts per game. That is half the Heat’s team total, during this five-game stretch.</p>
<p>If they creep back up to where they should be, this problem shouldn’t linger for long. Outside of Herro, other players are also shooting at or below their career averages.</p>
<p>Other offensive indicators, such as turnover and free throw rates, have only gotten slightly worse. The Heat’s offensive woes as of late should resolve themselves as soon as their shooting percentages improve a bit.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Opponents are hot </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-438027" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_1066,w_1600/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2017%2F07%2F1351763898.jpeg" alt="Miami Heat" width="1600" height="1066" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2017/07/1351763898.jpeg 1600w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2017/07/1351763898-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">Jordan Clarkson #00 of the Utah Jazz and Kyle Lowry #7 of the Miami Heat are separated after a scuffle during the first half (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)</p>
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<h2>Diagnosing the recent struggles of the Miami Heat: Opponents are hitting from downtown</h2>
<p>Miami runs a switch-heavy defensive scheme that sends aggressive help on drives to the basket and gives up a ton of three-point attempts. Ideally, the Heat would give up those shots to poor shooters and, therefore, would avoid punishment. This plan worked to perfection for the first half of the season, but things have changed.</p>
<p>Per Cleaning The Glass, before November 3, 44.9 percent of opponents’ shots were threes – the most allowed in the league. Opponents only shot 31.1 percent, however. Since then, 42.7% of shots allowed are threes (still third-most), but teams are hitting 36.6 percent.</p>
<p>36.6 percent from three is just a bit above average, so it’s not like teams are shooting out of their minds, but Miami would like to keep that number lower.</p>
<p>The Miami Heat prioritize helping in the post and on drives, and rely upon smart defenders to energetically close out on shooters. When it works, it looks like this:</p>
<div class="embed "><iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"https://streamable.com/o/0hx8tx#?secret=oVCppL8vdX" data-secret="oVCppL8vdX" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="604" height="304"></iframe></div>
<p>The Heat trap up top and Kyle Lowry comes down from the right corner to the middle to deny a post entry pass. This forces a long pass across the court to Bones Hyland in the corner, and Lowry does a hard, but controlled, close-out to contest the shot.</p>
<p>When it doesn’t work, it looks like this:</p>
<div class="embed "><iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"https://streamable.com/o/6jw30g#?secret=W28mvz5MWH" data-secret="W28mvz5MWH" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="592" height="310"></iframe></div>
<div>Kyle Lowry helps on the PJ Dozier drive but loses track of his man, Will Barton, who smartly relocates into Lowry’s blind spot and nails the open three.</div>
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<div>Milwaukee has famously bucked the trend of minimizing opponent threes these last few years. They protect the paint at all costs, giving up oodles of threes, but only to mediocre or bad shooters. Not all threes are created equal, and Milwaukee’s idea was to force complementary players into being high-volume three-point shooters, a role many aren’t comfortable with.</div>
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<div>Miami is trying to do something similar (albeit via different methods), but that relies upon players playing with high energy and high IQ. Breakdowns are inevitable, but the Heat have the players to make this scheme work.</div>
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<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Opponents live in the lane </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-438026" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2134,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2017%2F07%2F1350128315.jpeg" alt="Miami Heat" width="3200" height="2134" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2017/07/1350128315.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2017/07/1350128315-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Duncan Robinson #55 and Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat defend a shot by Kelly Oubre Jr. #12 of the Charlotte Hornets (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)</p>
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<h2>Diagnosing the recent struggles of the Miami Heat: Miami has opened the doors to the paint</h2>
<p>Rim defense is comprised of two parts – deterrence and prevention. All teams want to deter shots from ever taking place at the rim and then prevent those shots that <em>are</em> attempted from going in.</p>
<p>It may come as a surprise to some, but Miami’s defense has never been great at the second part. Since November 3, opposing teams have been shooting a blistering 71 percent at the hoop, but even before that, they were shooting 67 percent; both very poor numbers.</p>
<p>What’s changed is that Miami went from allowing the second-fewest rim attempts to a league-average number of attempts, and it’s killed their defensive rating. As mentioned above, the Heat ideally would limit rim attempts and force teams to beat them shooting jumpers, but that hasn’t been the case as of late. A team can’t be bad at both deterring and preventing layups and expect to field a strong defense.</p>
<p>Bam Adebayo is an All-World defender, who is incredible on the perimeter and in space, but he’s weakest right under the basket. Despite holding players to significantly lower shooting percentages when they are at least six feet from the basket, opponents are shooting exactly what is expected at the rim against him.</p>
<p>Adebayo’s been better than this in the past, but he is slightly undersized for a center. Some of the NBA’s giant brutes, like Jokic, can bully him. He doesn’t get as many blocks as you might expect.</p>
<p>Duncan Robinson tries hard, but he is targeted every time he checks into the game. Opponents are attempting as many dunks and layups against Robinson as against Bam and hitting them an absurd 73 percent of the time. He’s committing the most fouls of his career. It’s a similar story with Herro, too.</p>
<p>However, that is all expected. One thing that was not expected coming into this season was Kyle Lowry’s defensive struggles. A strong positive on that end for his career, Lowry has been gambling a little too often (as seen in the clip above) and has been getting torched by opponents, who are shooting 10 percent better than average against Lowry overall. He’s strong and intelligent but doesn’t have the length to bother jump shooters or make plays in the post.</p>
<p>The eye test for Lowry isn’t as bad as the numbers would suggest, but it’s clear there is room for improvement on that end. I suspect the shooting numbers against him will settle down over a larger sample and as Lowry adjusts. He’s too smart of a player to keep making the same mistakes.</p>
<p>The Miami Heat also need to re-emphasize protecting the paint and allowing more jump shots to protect players like Herro and Robinson that will never be Mutombo. That is more about effort than anything else, and the Heat defense should rebound with a little more rest.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Long-term prognosis </a>
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<img class="size-full wp-image-438025" src=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_2133,w_3200/http%3A%2F%2Fhoopshabit.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2017%2F07%2F1352968166.jpeg" alt="Miami Heat" width="3200" height="2133" srcset="https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2017/07/1352968166.jpeg 3200w, https://hoopshabit.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2017/07/1352968166-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 3200px) 100vw, 3200px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:3200px;">Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat is introduced prior to the game against the Utah Jazz (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)</p>
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<h2>Diagnosing the recent struggles of the Miami Heat: How this affects Miami long-term</h2>
<p>After looking at the schedule, things make a little more sense. Although they played (and beat) quality teams at the start of the year, their recent three-game losing streak involved three games in four days on the road against Western Conference teams that, even missing stars, still project to be playoff teams.</p>
<p>The Miami Heat likely benefitted from a little shooting luck on both sides of the court to start, and that has seesawed violently in the other direction during this five-game stretch. If shooting percentages level out somewhere in the middle, this Heat team still projects to be one of the best in the league on offense and defense.</p>
<p>The schedule is still reasonably tough going forward, with six of the next eight games on the road, but contests against the ghastly New Orleans Pelicans and feisty-but-young Oklahoma City Thunder should provide an opportunity to get some wins on the board.</p>
<p>Jimmy Butler’s ankle injury against the Clippers is cause for concern, but it appears to be relatively minor. The Heat are still being investigated for tampering, which may result in a draft pick loss, but it’s all speculation at this point. Losing picks would deplete the Heat’s already-limited trade asset pool, but it likely wouldn’t have a significant on-court impact this season.</p>
<p>Long story short, I believe that the problems the Miami Heat have faced aren’t indicative of deeper systemic issues. A little better shooting luck and cleaning up some defensive miscues will go a long way towards righting the ship. Overall, this Miami team still projects to be a top-four seed in the East and legitimate championship contender.</p>
<div class="fs-shortcode" data-type="StoryLink" data-theme="dark" data-text="Getting the most out of Bam Adebayo on offense" data-url="https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-getting-adebayo-offense/" data-call-to-action="Next"> <div class="story-link-next"> <a class="story-link-next-btn" style="background:#222423" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="story-link-next-shortcode" href=https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-diagnosing-struggles/"https://hoopshabit.com/2021/11/13/miami-heat-getting-adebayo-offense/"> <span class="call_to_action">Next:</span> Getting the most out of Bam Adebayo on offense </a> </div>
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